By John J. Metzler, August 11, 2024PARIS — In what’s described as a thunderclap in French North African policy, the Paris government recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the long disputed Western Sahara, a region long contested by rival Algeria and a lingering subject of endless United Nations deliberations.
In a deft and daring diplomatic move during a domestic political crisis but also the Olympics, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, changed the narrative and put the Paris government into closer alignment with the Kingdom of Morocco.
While Macron’s move presents a positive recalibration of relations with Morocco, it’s counterbalanced by Algeria’s predictable political ire. Algeria withdrew its Ambassador from Paris as an early protest.
The move was described as a “Thunderclap” in Franco/Algerian relations by the respected French daily Le Figaro.
Symbolically Macron’s gesture to Morocco came on the 25th anniversary of King Mohammed VI’s accession to the throne in Rabat. France’s ties with the Kingdom have long been clouded by a lack of formal recognition of Western Sahara’s complicated status.
In a letter to the Moroccan King, President Macron accepted the plan that Morocco proposed in 2007 offering the region limited autonomy under its sovereignty the “only basis” to resolve the conflict. Indeed Macron stated forcefully, “The present and future of Western Sahara fall within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty.”
The stratagem deals a setback to the pro-independence Polisario Front, which claims to be the legitimate representative of the indigenous Saharawi people.
Macron’s deft moves on the Maghreb/North African political chessboard were long overdue in a sensitive region of former French colonies. Ties with Algeria have been traditionally shadowed by the enduring memories of its bloody 1950’s fight for independence from France as much as the Algiers regime’s self-appointed standing as a politically progressive “player” in the Arab world.
“Paris had more interest to get closer to Rabat than to maintain false pretenses with Algeria,” opined Xavier Driencourt former French Ambassador to Algeria told Le Figaro.
The People’s Democratic Republic of Algeria, since independence from France in 1962, has been a corrupt socialist state. Though Algeria had faced but destroyed a violent domestic Islamic jihadi insurgency in the 1990’s, the land of 45 million people has moderated in recent years and favored a closer, if cautious, relationship with France. It’s still run by a shadowy military/civil deep state known as le pouvoir the Power.
Conversely France maintains close socio/economic relations with Morocco; Tourism is thriving, investment and trade flourish. Morocco hosts the largest French investments on the African continent. France exports to Morocco in 2022 reached $5 billion. Morocco a major provider of agricultural products but also cars and aircraft parts, exports $8 billion to France.
Macron’s moves mirror an equally bold political initiative by the former Trump Administration offering American recognition to Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara.
U.S./Moroccan relations have traditionally been cordial; In 1777 Morocco was one of the first states to diplomatically recognize American independence from Britain.
Western Sahara has its own colonial past having been controlled by Spain until 1975, when neighboring Morocco’s “Green March” peacefully albeit forcefully annexed the vast desert region. Since that time Western Sahara has been a political football between both Morocco and Algeria. In turn Algeria supports the mostly Marxist Polisario separatists, which serve as a cat’s paw for Algerian interests.
The UN still maintains a monitoring mission (MINURSO) in the region since 1991 which monitors a ceasefire but which had hoped to hold a referendum to settle the decades long sovereignty dispute. The referendum is yet to be held.
Not surprisingly, France has long sought to improve long frayed and sensitive ties with its former colony. Algeria is France’s second largest African trading partner.
Another unstated reason for the sudden Paris/Rabat rapprochement has been Macron’s growing concerns over illegal flows of migrants from Morocco into Spain and France. It’s not just Moroccan nationals who fit pretty easily into France but large numbers of West African illegals who are trafficked through Morocco and slipped into Spain.
As the Carnegie Council Sada monitor reports, “Over the past five years, Moroccan authorities have intercepted approximately 366,000 attempts at irregular migration to Europe. In 2023 alone, Morocco apprehended approximately 75,000 migrants.” Most are not Moroccans but given the Kingdom’s high food prices and cost of living crisis, even many middle-class locals wish to leave.
So the point seems Macron wants much more cooperation from Morocco to deter migrant trafficking. France politically supports Morocco’s Western Sahara claims in the hope of stabilizing a strategic partner and ally. The bets are down.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]
