Commentary by Wayne Allyn Root, October 28, 2024No one in the history of politics or political media has my background.
Long before I got into politics, I was branded by the national media as "America's Oddsmaker" and "the King of Vegas Gambling." CNBC, Fortune and The Wall Street Journal profiled my life. And the Las Vegas Walk of Stars awarded me a 180-pound granite star on world-famous Las Vegas Blvd.
Now my main gig is politics. And I've used my unique oddsmaker skills to make literally thousands of predictions on my TV and radio political talk shows over the past decade. I'm batting .999, when all it takes is .333 to get into the Hall of Fame.
This is not a last-second prediction. I've been making this prediction for many weeks on my TV and radio shows. But now it's clear it's coming true. I keep saying this election is an exact repeat of Reagan-Carter in 1980. That race was tied for months. Pollsters predicted the final margin would be razor thin. They were wrong then, just as they're wrong today.
Ronald Reagan won by a landslide on Election Day in 1980.
No one saw it coming. Every poll was wrong. Everything changed over the closing days of the campaign. In the end, everyone came to the same conclusion, at the same time — they all picked Reagan. The rest is history!
Reagan not only won by a landslide that day. He went onto win an even bigger landslide four years later over Jimmy Carter's Vice President Walter Mondale. Reagan turned the disastrous Carter economy around, created peace and prosperity and went on to become one of the greatest presidents in history.
Do you see the many parallels? Donald Trump is the new Reagan.
Just like under Carter, the Biden-Harris economy is a disaster for middle-class Americans. Just like under Carter, our country is failing and has lost respect around the world. Just like under Carter, there has been massive inflation and dramatically rising energy prices.
President Trump turned around the failing Obama economy eight years ago. Now he will turn around the failing Biden-Harris economy. Trump created prosperity and peace around the world — just like Reagan. And he'll do it again.
Reagan beat Carter's VP Mondale. Now Trump's about to beat Biden's VP Kamala Harris.
But the biggest parallel is the election itself.
This race — just like Reagan-Carter race — was tied according to the polls for weeks leading up to Election Day. And just like Reagan, Trump is pulling away at the end. Polls show Trump with the best polling numbers of his entire career, and most importantly, leading in all seven battleground states — which would give him an electoral landslide.
More importantly, the bettors have made Trump a huge favorite in the race, and in all seven battleground states. As a Vegas oddsmaker, I can tell you bettors are far more accurate than the public, or pollsters. Bettors are sharp "wise guys" putting their money where their mouths are.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, with billions of dollars bet. While pollsters show Trump pulling ahead in all seven swing states, they show it as a very close race. The bettors disagree.
At Polymarket, here are the current odds:
Michigan: Trump leads 54% to 47%.
Pennsylvania: Trump leads 61% to 39%.
North Carolina: Trump leads 70% to 30%.
Georgia: Trump leads 72% to 28%.
Nevada: Trump leads 66% to 34%.
Wisconsin: Trump leads 57% to 43%.
Arizona: Trump leads 72% to 28%.
Overall at Polymarket, Trump's odds of winning the entire election are 65% to 34% for Kamala. That's a 31-point lead.
So, why is Trump pulling away? And why do I predict an electoral landslide? Again, for the exact same reason Reagan pulled away from Carter in the final days of the 1980 race.
The circumstances are exactly the same.
In 1980, the voters were scared of Reagan, a former actor and movie star, a D.C. outsider with very little political experience. Remind you of anyone?
Reagan was slandered and demonized by the media as a madman, evil, radical, racist and a man whose finger on the nuclear button would get us all killed. Remind you of anyone?
But in the end, even if they had doubts about Reagan, voters walked into the voting booth and asked themselves two questions:
1. Am I better off today than four years ago?
2. Can I survive four more years of this disastrous mess?
Then they all decided to vote for Reagan.
Trump is pulling away because of the same two questions.
In the end, no matter the voters' dislikes or doubts about Trump, they know they were better off four years ago and they fear neither they, nor America, can survive four more years of what we are experiencing: a horrible economy for middle-class Americans (because of inflation); an open-border invasion; a massive crime wave; and World War III about to start.
That is why I've spent weeks predicting this election would be a repeat of 1980, and why I predicted Trump would pull away late — and win an electoral landslide.
Because the two questions and the two answers are exactly the same as 1980.
The American people have clearly chosen Trump in the final days of this race. He is pulling away.
Now only a rigged election can stop Trump from a decisive victory. That's the only asterisk to my prediction — how big can Democrats rig and cheat and stuff the ballot box with illegal alien voters, dead voters and fake mail-in ballots.
My gut says it's just too big to rig this time.
Wayne Allyn Root recently published "The Great Patriot Protest and Boycott Book." He is host of the nationally syndicated "Wayne Allyn Root: Raw & Unfiltered" on USA Radio Network, daily from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. EST.
