FPI / March 13, 2024
Geostrategy-Direct
By Richard Fisher
United States Strategic Command Commander Gen. Anthony Cotton gave Leap Year Feb. 29 testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) in which he revealed that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) likely has superiority over the U.S. in theater nuclear weapons and is now developing its next generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
Gen. Cotton stated, “the PRC likely has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and,… could have more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
Cotton also testified, “the PRC has approximately 1,000 medium and intermediate-range dual-capable conventional or nuclear ballistic missiles capable of inflicting significant damage to U.S., Allied, or partner forces and homelands in the Indo-Pacific.”
And he added that China “is developing a new generation of mobile ICBMs.”
Cotton’s was the first ever revelation by a U.S. government official that the PLA could have up to 1,000 dual-capable medium and intermediate, or theater range ballistic missiles, meaning that the PLA could have up to 1,000 nuclear armed theater range missiles.
In all issues of the Pentagon’s China Military Power Reports since 1999 there has been no revelation of the number or potential number of theater nuclear weapons possessed by the PLA.
This points to a profound vulnerability for the United States and the credibility of its ability to defend its Asian allies by deterring Chinese nuclear coercion and nuclear attack.
The U.S. today has no tactical nuclear bombs or nuclear armed medium range or intermediate range ballistic missiles or nuclear armed cruse missile based in Asia.
A growing and combined Chinese and Russian strategic nuclear force could deter/neutralize U.S. strategic nuclear forces, making it safer for China and Russia to exercise theater nuclear coercion or actual strikes.
Should China achieve deterrence of U.S. nuclear forces at the strategic and tactical/theater nuclear levels, the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may be emboldened to begin a near term war to conquer Taiwan and to destroy its democracy.
Gen. Cotton’s revelation that the PLA is developing a next generation ICBM was also a surprise.
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