by Romulus
The 2,700 year old Roman Romulus, founder of the city of Rome and now a stock market trader and teacher for Grok Trade, called the precise top in the digital currency Bitcoin three months ago.
Stepping into recent history, when every voice in the industry was calling for ever increasing returns on Bitcoin, Romulus warned investors and aspiring traders that its fall was near and could be devastating.
Bitcoin, which had just two days before reached a heady price of $60,000, Romulus cautioned, could be expected to drop precipitously. The collapse, he predicted, could take price down nearly 50% or more, back into the $30,000s if not lower.
On Tuesday, three months after Romulus’ warning, Bitcoin plunged below $30,000.
Bitcoin was the most popularly traded vehicle in the markets throughout the first quarter of 2021, but Romulus noticed emerging problems in the rally. With the approaching IPO of Coinbase, the probability of a major top in cryptocurrency was rapidly increasing.
Here is the precise recommendation Romulus delivered to investors and traders on March 22, two days after bitcoin hit $60,000: "In the 12 years of Bitcoin’s existence, it has captured attention, experienced explosive moves and altered the trading and business landscape. This impact is permanent, but that does not mean it is always a good time to buy the digital currency. A purchase in December 2017 near $20,000 turned into a $16,000 loss very fast. Last year it was selling for $10,000 a coin, now it is trading for $56,000. As with so much of life, Bitcoin is neither good nor bad, it is just about timing.
"Over the intermediate term, all digital currencies will trade in a similar manner to Bitcoin, so we will use the original digital currency as the proxy to analyze the entire market. After definitively breaking $10,000 last fall, Bitcoin has been on a tear. The problem, however, is that as price has been moving higher, the indicator (it measures strength of momentum) has been getting weaker.
"In a war like this, it is usually the indicator that wins and shows us the way. In the current case, that means Bitcoin will most likely succumb to a level of selling that will bring the price down below $40,000 in coming months. It can still go up, but the risks are increasing and the probabilities are growing that a price decline will be seen in the near future. We always follow the probabilities, even when they are wrong."
Bitcoin did go up, an additional 6% to $64,655.28 and then proceeded to drop over 26% in the next seven trading days. Thirteen weeks after its all time high, Bitcoin had shed 54.98% of its value to a low of $29,104.95.
The analogy to Ancient Rome is worth remembering.
Wealth, like Rome, cannot be built in a day. But like Rome, it can be lost in a day.
Therefore, look here in the future for announcements from Romulus about future profitable market shifts, important indicators, and avoidable downturns.
For more information about trading education or to trade with Romulus, contact John Reed at john@groktrade.com or go to www.groktrade.com/romulus.
In his real-life existence, Romulus started on Wall Street in 1994 and traded for a hedge fund for 13 years. For the past 12 months he has been a teacher and mentor working for Grok Trade, a stock trading educational company in business since 2007.
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