FPI / June 19, 2025
Geostrategy-Direct
China’s rise in the Middle East was punctuated in March 2023 when it brokered a pact that led Iran to reestablish relations with long-time enemy Saudi Arabia.
Just over two years later, Beijing’s foothold in the region is on shaky ground amid Israel’s devastating attack on the Islamic Republic, analysts say.
“One conclusion is already evident: China, Iran's long-time backer, is a victim of the fighting. That is a quick reversal of fortunes. Only last year, the Chinese looked ascendant in the region,” Gordon G. Chang wrote for the Gatestone Institute on June 16.
"China is closely following Israel's attacks on Iran and is deeply concerned about the potential grave consequences of the operations," the Chinese foreign ministry stated on X a few hours after the initial attacks. "China opposes actions that violate Iran's sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, and opposes moves that escalate tensions or enlarge conflicts."
China needs a stable Iranian regime as other states in the region are not looking to the communists for assistance.
"There were some very, very relieved people in the Gulf as the sun rose this morning," Jonathan Bass told Gatestone the day after Israel's initial attack.
As Bass, who travels extensively in the region for Argent LNG points out, the losses sustained by the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) give the Sunni Muslim states fewer reasons to cooperate with Teheran.
"The Saudis were not particularly happy with Chinese attempts to forge a relationship between them and the Iranians," Bass said. "The March 2023 deal was not popular in the Kingdom."
"The Saudis," Bass pointed out, "know that China had armed their enemy Iran with nukes and lesser weapons and fully backed the Houthis, who have been waging war on the Kingdom for years."
As Chang pointed out: “Yes, the Chinese regime did all that, and the Kingdom has been looking for payback for a long time.”
Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf states are, as academic and analyst Christopher Balding put it, "quietly happy" that Israel has set back Iran in general and its nuclear weapons program in particular.
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