If the Trump train is changing the game in Washington, D.C., it has upended a decades-long marriage of convenience with many nations in western Europe.
"The United States-Europe relationship must fundamentally change if it is to endure," Henry Olsen wrote in a Feb. 17 analysis for the Brussels Signal after statements by Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Last month, President Donald Trump said NATO members must spend more on defense, but the underlying message is that the two major western communities face a divide on values that may be wider than the Atlantic Ocean.
In a Feb. 19 post to Truth Social, Trump wrote:
"Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and “TRUMP,” will never be able to settle. The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back.
"Why didn’t Sleepy Joe Biden demand Equalization, in that this War is far more important to Europe than it is to us — We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation. On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is “MISSING.” He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden “like a fiddle.”
"A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left. In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only “TRUMP,” and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the “gravy train” going. I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues."
Outrage ensued from the power centers of the EU and major media ran with such headlines as "Trump's Attack on Zelensky Signals New World Order."
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British historian Niall Ferguson, in a post to X, cited President George H.W. Bush's 1990 quote: "This will not stand. This will not stand, this aggression against Kuwait."
Ferguson then wrote: "Future history students will be asked why this stopped being the reaction of a Republican president to the invasion of a sovereign state by a dictator."
Vance responded with a post to Truth Social that this isn't 1990:
This is moralistic garbage, which is unfortunately the rhetorical currency of the globalists because they have nothing else to say. For three years, President Trump and I have made two simple arguments: first, the war wouldn't have started if President Trump was in office; second, that neither Europe, nor the Biden administration, nor the Ukrainians had any pathway to victory. This was true three years ago, it was true two years ago, it was true last year, and it is true today. And for three years, the concerns of people who were obviously right were ignored. What is Niall's actual plan for Ukraine? Another aid package? Is he aware of the reality on the ground, of the numerical advantage of the Russians, of the depleted stock of the Europeans or their even more depleted industrial base?Said Trump on defense spending: "I think NATO should have 5%. They can all afford it, but they should be at 5%, not 2%."
Instead, he quotes from a book about George HW Bush from a different historical period and a different conflict. That's another currency of these people: reliance on irrelevant history. President Trump is dealing with reality, which means dealing with facts. And here are some facts: Number one, while our Western European allies' security has benefitted greatly from the generosity of the United States, they pursue domestic policies (on migration and censorship) that offend the sensibilities of most Americans and defense policies that assume continued over-reliance. Number two, Russians have a massive numerical advantage in manpower and weapons in Ukraine, and that advantage will persist regardless of further Western aid packages.
Again, the aid is *currently* flowing. Number three, the United States retains substantial leverage over both parties to the conflict. Number four, ending the conflict requires talking to the people involved in starting it and maintaining it. Number five, the conflict has placed--and continues to place--stress on tools of American statecraft, from military stockpiles to sanctions (and so much else). We believe the continued conflict is bad for Russia, bad for Ukraine, and bad for Europe. But most importantly, it is bad for the United States. Given the above facts, we must pursue peace, and we must pursue it now. President Trump ran on this, he won on this, and he is right about this. It is lazy, ahistorical nonsense to attack as "appeasement" every acknowledgment that America's interest must account for the realities of the conflict. That interest--not moralisms or historical illiteracy--will guide President Trump's policy in the weeks to come. And thank God for that.
Currently, Poland is the highest spender on defense in GDP terms at 4.12%, followed by Estonia at 3.43%.
Germany, France, Italy, and Spain – four of the largest EU economies – don’t spend the minimum 2% of GDP on defense that has long been NATO’s goal or struggle barely to meet it.
In a Feb. 12 address to a defense summit in Brussels, Hegseth said the U.S. would no longer "tolerate an imbalanced relationship" with its allies and called on NATO members to spend much more on defense.
He also said it was "unrealistic" to expect Ukraine to return to its pre-2014 borders and downplayed the prospect of Ukraine joining Nato.
"Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO," Hegseth said. "Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine."
Hegseth echoed calls by Trump for NATO allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of the current 2% target — saying the latter is "not enough."
With those comments by Trump, Vance, and Hegseth, the moment of truth has arrived for the post-Cold War NATO alliance.
"Europe now knows where it stands. If it wants a relationship with America, it must have a relationship with all of America, not just the half that it prefers to invite to cocktail parties," Olsen wrote.
"If it wants a seat at the table to form a united front with the United States even in its backyard, it needs to develop the hard military power that commands respect."
In the post-Cold War, Olsen noted, "America maintained a strong military capable of intervening anywhere. European nations mostly disarmed, eliminating their capacity to even fulfill their commitments to European collective defense."
Olsen continued: "European elites viewed war as a thing they had outgrown. They viewed America’s continued use of it as helpful to them, as it provided for their defense, but largely self-defeating outside of that context.
"Endless diplomacy, not winning conflicts, was the European solution to global tensions.
"European elites also started to move away from accepting America’s political situation. They increasingly disdained people and ideas associated with the Republican Party, clearly favourng the culturally liberal elites in the Democratic Party. ...
"The gist of the Trump-Vance-Hegseth statements is simple: we won’t play your game any longer. To wit:
"• America will no longer underwrite your defense and take the lead in solving your conflicts while having its views and interests ignored and decried;
"• America will not hobble its economy to pursue global warming goals that cannot be achieved anyway because China, India, and other developing nations won’t cut their greenhouse gas emissions;
"• America will not give you free access to our economy while you protect key segments of yours (automobiles, agriculture, Internet and AI)."
If the NATO allies want Trump's respect, Olsen concluded, they "must show respect to Alabama, Kansas, and the places in flyover country that elect Republicans."And they "must also show respect to their own citizens, often from their own rural and forgotten communities, who feel and vote the same way. European elites may decide they don’t want a relationship on those terms. That’s certainly one option, and an understandable, if regrettable, one.
"But then that’s their choice, not Trump’s. And they will then need to sleep in the bed they have made."
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