Geostrategy-Direct
Iran has been adamant about not wanting to open diplomatic channels with U.S. President Donald Trump.
But the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be pressed to abandon that stance if Trump works out some kind of deal with one of Iran’s top allies, Russia.
In fact, some believe a deal has already been reached in secret, backing the Iranian regime into a corner.
“There may be some substantial indirect advantages if a byproduct of Washington mending ties with Moscow is that Russian President Vladimir Putin leans in hard on Iran to strike a serious nuclear compromise,” Yonah Jeremy Bob wrote in a March 9 analysis for The Jerusalem Post.
Indeed, if Trump has made a deal with Putin that includes the Russian leader leaning hard on Khamenei, “the mix of heightened diplomatic and economic pressure with no Russian protection, along with Israel’s much more viable military threat against Iran’s nuclear program, may finally checkmate the Islamic Republic into real concessions, which could bring to a close what has been an unending nuclear crisis,” Bob wrote.
“If Khamenei misses that memo, the chances that he will have Russian military help to defend against the IAF may have just evaporated.”
Trump said recently: “There’ll be some interesting days ahead. That’s all I can tell you. You know, we’re down to final strokes with Iran… [we] can’t let them have a nuclear weapon... They have a lot of nice oil wells, right? So anyway, it’s going to be a big thing. It’s an interesting time in the history of the world, but we have a situation with Iran, and something’s going to happen very soon.”
Although it has not been explicitly laid out, the signs are pointing to a deal Trump has, or is trying, to reach with Ukraine regarding the war with Russia involving a Russian promise to help the U.S. deal with the Iranian nuclear crisis.
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If Iran does shift on the issue, it will largely be a result of the Kremlin’s shift toward the U.S.Trump has been a known factor for four months and in full power for five weeks. Coupled with Israel’s military strength established since the war began did not shift the Iranian regime’s messaging alone.
Not long ago, Khamenei’s regime forced vice president Javad Zarif out of power to silence voices inside Iran who are in favor of negotiating with the West.
“That sent a message of unwavering brinkmanship to any Trump ideas of forcing Teheran into nuclear concessions,” Bob wrote.
But since the Trump-Putin deal has entered the discussion, the messaging out of Tehran has been varied, with one day trumpeting negotiations with the West as possible, while the next day saying it’s impossible, and the next day again saying diplomacy is desirable.
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