By John J. Metzler, January 1, 2025In the swirling whirligig of world events, the past year 2024 was nearly like no other.
Extraordinary but often jarring occurrences mixed in a hodgepodge of hope, joy and despair as crucial elections were won and lost, regional conflicts exploded and humanitarian crises boiled over with a sickening predictability.
I’m again prepared to say; if the news cycle of 2024 were the outline for a thriller novel or movie, most agents would scoff and say the plot and storyline it simply too far fetched to believe!
Well, we lived it! But now some of the dust may slowly begin to settle. Here’s why.
First off aggressor states like Putin’s Russia have worn down Ukraine but also themselves. This does not mean the fight is over, but everybody may be looking for a military and political off ramp after the exhausting fighting now for nearly three bloody years.
Second, President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-active American foreign policy, while safeguarding U.S. interests will also focus on stopping ongoing conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East. During the past year in the twilight of the Biden/Harris Administration, and the tumultuous American elections, the global power vacuum expanded dangerously.
The electoral triumph by Donald Trump will most likely reestablish overdue political equilibrium in key regions. Washington must now shift from <em>managing chaos to solving crises</em> amid still rising geopolitical tensions.
Ukraine
After a massive transfusion of over $183 billion in American military and economic aid, Ukraine has not won the war but could certainly lose it. The Russians have ground down the outnumbered Ukrainian military. Moscow hasn’t won either but they could. Donald Trump has promised to end the Ukraine war, not easy, but the new American President can help bring about a ceasefire and a truce. The Europeans want this to end too as they cannot afford to keep supporting Kyiv with unlimited weapons and aid.
Mideast
The churning crisis in Gaza, tragically triggered by Iran-backed Hamas terrorists, has spilled over elsewhere, as predicted, into neighboring Lebanon. Hizbullah fighters attacked the Israelis only to have the IDF teach them a tough lesson in southern Lebanon. Tragically this escalation has destabilized Lebanon a once reasonably pluralistic and prosperous place.
Following the fall of Syria’s Assad dictatorship, it’s naive to assume the Islamic rebels really plan to establish a democracy. Watch carefully how this unfolds…not only for the Syrian refugee diaspora in Europe but for ancient Christian and Druze minorities inside Syria.
Iran
Teheran’s military proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Houthis have all taken a military battering from the Israelis. The collapse of Assad’s Syrian regime was the turning point. Moreover the domestic situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has become dismal. Given a fortuitous constellation of events, at long last this may be the year that Iran’s brutal regime collapses under its own weight of incompetence and rash foreign military misadventures. For the sake of the long suffering Iranian people, and especially its talented and frustrated youth, this would come not a moment too soon.
Elections
France had a swirl of three Prime Ministers in the past year, harkening the pre-war Third Republic. Germany’s unstable coalition government has teetered and fallen; Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats face new elections in late February. It’s very likely the Christian Democrats will return to power and revive lackluster economic growth. In Canada too, the mismanagement by the progressive/leftist Justin Trudeau government has sadly turned Canada into a laughingstock. Trudeau will likely lose Parliamentary elections later in the year to the conservatives.
East Asia
The status quo was rattled as South Korea’s tumultuous democracy took a turn for the unexpected as a baffling martial law declaration by the sitting President Yoon Suk-Yeol, triggered massive political pushback from the major opposition party. These moves and antics by both sides now tarnish South Korea’s burnished<em> brand </em>of political and economic standing. Moreover instability in South Korea encourages communist North Korea to play more political/ military provocations. North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-Un has moved closer to Russia and now supplies troops for Putin’s Ukraine war!
Taiwan’s vibrant democracy still faces a growing military threat from communist China. Beijing’s rulers have never renounced the use of force to conquer what they claim is part of the People’s Republic (but never was). Despite the military standoff, Mainland China’s economy is lackluster and challenged by widespread corruption and demographic decline.
Areas to Watch
Troubled geographic fault-lines which arc from Bosnia to Serbia, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova face Russian instigated subversion and political subterfuge. Watch these countries.
Amid these challenges ahead, have a Happy and Healthy New Year!!
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]
