FPI / November 7, 2024
Geostrategy-Direct
By Richard Fisher
Early on Oct. 31, North Korean time, dictator Kim Jong-Un directed the first test of the Hwasong-19, now the world’s largest mobile solid fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
This ICBM poses a new threat to the United States and the democracies as it opens new space warfare options for North Korea, and inasmuch as North Korea’s missile programs are supported by China, it may also preview the next generation of larger Chinese solid fuel ICBMs.
Its clearest link to China is the Hwasong-19’s massive 22-wheel transporter erector launcher (TEL) which shows clear pedigree from the first Chinese 16-wheel ICBM TEL transferred in late 2011, made by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC).
While in mid-2023 and in early 2024 Kim Jong-Un revealed images of North Korean factories showing advanced production of 18-wheel TELs for the Hwasong-18 solid fuel ICBM, Kim has not revealed any factory images showing production of TEL components, leaving open the possibility that all large North Korean TELs are assembled from Chinese-made parts.
In addition, as CASIC built the original TELs for North Korea, it would have to have intimate knowledge of the large missiles they were to carry, which logically suggests that CASIC or its competitor the larger China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), would have been involved in the development and production of North Korea’s large solid fuel and liquid fueled ICBMs.
CASIC produces a 2.2+ meter diameter solid fuel space launch vehicle (KZ-11) and CASC makes a 2.2+ meter diameter ICBM (DF-41) and space launch vehicle (Long March-11), which is about the same 2.2+ meter diameter of North Korea’s Hwasong-18 ICBM.
The Hwasong-19’s first stage, however, may be closer to 3 meters in diameter, but only CASC is known to make 3-meter, 3.2-meter and 3.5-meter diameter solid rocket motors in China.
Such cooperation with Pyongyang would allow CASC to test new larger ICBM motors; since about 2017 Chinese sources have suggested that a new larger CASC ICBM was in development, called the DF-45 or DF-51.
The Hwasong-19 may also have a length of 28 meters, whereas, whereas Russia’s large RS-24 Yars ICBM is only 20.9 meters in length and the DF-41 is estimated to be 22 meters long, and likely weighs over 100 tons, whereas the DF-41 is estimated to weigh 80 tons.
North Korea did not test the Hwasong-19 to its full range but instead conducted a typical high altitude lofted test, which resulted in a splash down about 1,000 kilometers east from its launch position near Pyongyang.
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