By John J. Metzler, August 2, 2024PARIS — France is facing continuing political chaos in the wake of President’s Emmanuel Macron’s vain and failed gambit in calling for unnecessary legislative elections to counterbalance the expected but riveting results of the rightist surge in June’s European Parliamentary voting.
Now ironically the Paris Olympics may have offered the Elysee some breathing space to sort out a percolating political crisis across the French political spectrum at least until mid-August.
Following the unsurprising outcome of European Union elections in June where rightist National Rally won massively, as did conservative parties across most of Europe, French President Macron gambled on countering the rising right by calling for legislative elections.
Macron scored a political “Own Goal” as they say in soccer, in thinking he could outflank the National Rally. In effect he opened the path to a narrow election victory by the Far Left.
The Olympics offers a respite; Hold off on choosing a new prime minister and government until after the Games on Aug. 11. It’s given the embattled president breathing space and does not embarrass the Republic during the Olympics.
The French Fifth Republic established in 1958 by General Charles de Gaulle continues; The constitution established a strong presidency alongside a weak prime minister and legislature. The previous Fourth Republic, which lasted between 1946 and 1958, was plagued by political instability of which were 21 weak governments.
Many citizens fear a repeat of this period of profound uncertainty.
Three political blocks vie for power in the National Assembly; The center, the supporters of President Macron’s Renaissance party, the Right, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen, and the New Popular Front, the extreme Left coalition jockeying for power while in internal disarray.
The 577-seat Legislative Assembly remains gridlocked by the three relatively equal political groupings.
The leftwing uneasy alliance of the New Popular Front (NPF) unexpectedly topped the July 7 runoff with more than 190 seats with only 26 percent of the vote; It remains short of a 289-seat absolute majority. Macron’s Renaissance party holds 164, and Le Pen’s National Rally only has 143, despite gaining 37 percent of the popular vote!
The two largest groups in the French Legislature on both the Left and the Right are Euro-skeptic anti-capitalist, and largely critical of the U.S.
The New Popular Front comprises a political bouillabaisse of four political parties from the France Unbowed party, of Jean-Luc Melenchon, along with the Socialists, Greens and Communists. Melenchon’s far left fury of France unbowed, plays a socialist populist card through his rhetorical rants where he is often dubbed the “Outrager in chief.”
Facing political cacophony from all sides, President Macron called for a “political truce” for the duration of the Olympic Games.
“The French now want a little rest to “get back to the Games,” he argued, leaving the negotiations to secure a majority to partisan backrooms. “It is up to the political leaders to work,” he added.
The choice of a new prime minister and government hangs over France like a Damocles sword.
The dominant New Popular Front is jockeying to place a prime minister and form a new government; Until then, the current prime minister Gabriel Attal continues. Melenchon’s NFP programs threaten capital flight and economic stability.
Literally hours before the grandiose Olympic opening ceremony, France’s high speed rail network was hit by a series of sabotage attacks which caused chaos and massively disrupted rail services especially of the high-speed TGV trains out of Paris. While there were fortunately no derailments or injuries, the incidents shut parts of the network until repairs were made.
Security officials concede this was likely the actions of domestic militants among far Left political forces. The incidents were set to embarrass Macron and France.
Despite Macron’s impressive economic and social reforms, he still saddled the State with a massive 111 percent of GDP debt. Though presenting himself as an indefatigable force of energy and ideas, now following the recent election <em>faux pas</em>, Macron is viewed as increasingly unpopular, arrogant and out of touch.
Dangerous political undercurrents throughout French politics and society have reemerged in the aftermath of the elections. The peril to France is obvious but the political contagion throughout Europe is troubling, namely creating an unstable government in one of the European Union’s key countries.
Since winning the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022, Macron has portrayed himself as a brilliant politician and savvy technocrat. He often referred to himself as <em>Jupiter</em>. But following this crisis he’s been forced to earth to become a pure mortal.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]
