By John J. Metzler, June 16, 2025The stunningly successful Ukrainian drone attacks on multiple airbases across Russia’s deep interior last week by hitting and likely destroying a sizable portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, proved the audacity of the beleaguered Kyiv government not to surrender.
Operation “Spider Web,” hit grounded Russian missile-carrying bombers, the huge and lumbering propeller Tu-95, “Bear”, Tu-22 “Backfire”, and supersonic Tu-160 “Blackjack” bombers.
A desultory diplomatic process to bring a needed ceasefire to the three-year war seems to have stalled; The United States, Britain and the Europeans all thought both sides, bloodied by a grim World War I static conflict, were ready for peace.
Well yes, but on their own terms! As the blood of both Ukrainians and Russians is spilled on the front line, Ukrainian cities suffer targeted air raids by swarms of Iranian-built Russian drones. The staccato of indiscriminate terror hits apartment buildings, playgrounds and shopping centers.
While ceasefire negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey have achieved some success with sizable prisoner swaps, a notable boost for morale on both warring sides, nobody wants to give up blood soaked terrain on either side. Thus far, more than 1.4 million people, including one million Russians and 400,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded in three years of fighting.
Russia pounded Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, with a massive drone and glide bomb attack, killing four people and injuring nearly 60. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strikes on Kharkiv made “no military sense” and were “pure terrorism”. That’s true, but is there a bigger picture we are missing?
As a UN humanitarian statement in the Security Council stated, “These incidents underscore the continued vulnerability of civilians nationwide, including the more than 3.7 million people currently displaced across Ukraine… as the Secretary-General reaffirmed under international humanitarian law, constant care must be taken to spare civilians.”
Despite Western wishful thinking and logic to the contrary, Vladimir Putin seems to be digging in. The hyper-nationalist president has a Russian heart but a Soviet soul both of which can sustain a grinding and sanguinary war well into the future. But Putin’s seemingly reluctance to “settle for” a ceasefire overlooks the obvious. Is it that Russia is winning, or actually more likely, has the Kremlin’s General Staff planned a massive Summer offensive to try to smash Ukrainian resistance?
Symbolically, a new statue of the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin was placed on display in the Moscow Metro; Stalin after all fits into Putin’s narrative of the bloody but ultimately successful victory over Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War. Stalin statues are popping up across Russia as testament that Putin wishes to link the Ukraine war with WWII.
President Donald Trump has soundly chastised Putin for recent civilian attacks on Ukraine; “I don’t know what the hell happened to Putin,” he exclaimed adding in a social media post, saying Putin “has gone absolutely CRAZY!” and was needlessly killing a lot of people.
But Russian tactics are creating a constellation of forces in the West which may finally be able to press for a serious ceasefire and a later peace deal. Poland has recently seen the election of a new nationalist President Karol Nawrocki whose policies are seen closer to the U.S. President.
Equally there’s a softening of initially skeptical ties with Germany’s new conservative Chancellor Frederich Merz, who during a recent visit to Washington got on well with Donald Trump despite the nervousness of the legacy media. The Chancellor spoke about having “very close cooperation” with the U.S. on a number of issues. German Deutsche Welle TV admitted that Merz and Trump “clearly had a rapport”.
Chancellor Merz said that he was extremely “satisfied” with his visit to Washington.
Frederich Merz remains a staunch supporter of transatlantic relations with the U.S. Moreover now Germany is increasing its NATO contribution from the 2 percent minimum up to 5 percent!
Within days of assuming office in early May, Merz visited Ukraine, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The European leaders had hoped for a ceasefire and peace talks. That was wishful thinking.
Importantly the new conservative chancellor from the CDU party has significantly ramped up support to Ukraine from his previous Social Democratic predecessor; Germany is sending another $5 billion in additional weapons to support Ukraine’s defense. Indeed, the Berlin government is one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers along with the USA and Britain.
But with Summer weather approaching, there’s a lingering feeling that Vladimir Putin may be looking to one more military gamble in Ukraine.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]
