By Richard Fisher
On the evening of Aug. 26, 2025 the tenth test flight for Elon Musk’s massive 5,000 ton SpaceX Starship space launch vehicle (SLV) completed a just-over an hour test flight that achieved its mission agenda, but after two delays, one mechanical on Aug. 24 and one due to weather on Aug. 25.
However, by the end of 2025 China could begin its era of reusable SLV services, posing a strategic and commercial threat to SpaceX, with about 19 reusable SLVs now in development.
Even so, the tenth test flight for Starship had modest goals, largely recouping progress that would have been made on the 8th and 9th test flights that both exploded. Those goals include:
• The large 33-engine Super Heavy booster tested new engine configurations and was not fully recovered, instead making a controlled water landing;
• Simulation next generation Starlink satellites were launched;
• And the Starship upper stage tested new heatshield tiles and did conduct a “successful” water landing.
And though Starship is historic in that it is the largest SLV in history to reach orbital altitude, it has yet to achieve its major innovation goals for being able to offer even greater launch cost savings:
• The full recovery of two fully reusable SLV stages;
• Low Earth Orbit refueling to enable lunar missions.
Furthermore, it may not reach the development goal of making a manned Moon landing version (Human Landing System, HLS) to meet the current U.S. goal of returning astronauts to the Moon by mid-2027.
But when it succeeds, Starship will offer the advantages of launching up to 60 of the new larger Version-3 Starlink space-internet satellites, compared to about 20 of the Version-2 Starlink satellites deployed by the SpaceX Falcon-9, and Starship has the potential to transport up to 100+ tons of people and cargo to the Moon.
Nevertheless, in 2024 SpaceX achieved a record 134 successful space launches and plans an even greater record of 170 in 2025, while in 2024 China achieved 68 rocket launches, a number that will be greater for 2025 inasmuch as it has conducted 50 launches as of Aug. 26, 2025.
But if the SpaceX Starship does not meet with timely developmental success, its market dominance for low-cost space launch services could be severely challenged by China; There are now about 19 Chinese reusable SLV programs and more could be started, benefiting from China’s state support for new space launch companies.
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