By John J. Metzler, December 25, 2024The extraordinary and fast-moving events in Syria have gripped the world.
What was viewed as a forgotten, forsaken and frozen conflict churning on for nearly fourteen years, has suddenly jumped into the headlines to round out this tumultuous year.
Syria at long last has been freed from the Assad family dictatorship which had ruthlessly ruled this ancient land for 53 years. People are overjoyed; celebrations rocked the capital Damascus as citizens embraced freedom but have yet to achieve democracy.
But the strife may not be over yet in sections of the country.
President-elect Donald Trump warned, “Turkey did an unfriendly takeover of Syria.”
Donald Trump was referring to Turkey's overt military support to the Islamic HTS rebels who toppled Assad.
Turkish strongman President Tayep Recep Erdogan now openly enters the game as Turkey plans on settling scores with the Kurdish minority just across its border with Syria.
Erdogan wants large numbers of the 3.5 million mostly Syrian refugees currently in Turkey to now go home. That’s understandable. The other is setting boundaries barring Kurdish militants via a “Safe zone” carved by force from Syrian territory along the long frontier.
But now comes the undertow of a sanguinary history; The cities turned to rubble by the civil war between Assad’s Russian backed regime and Islamic fundamentalist forces which have turned the land into a hellscape.
Aleppo, Hama, Homs were signposts of despair for a decade. Millions of people fled, and millions are internally displaced.
In its first meeting on Syria since Assad’s fall, the fifteen member UN Security Council looked to the way forward. Geir Pedersen, the UN’s long serving Special Envoy stated, “While battlefield developments might be winding down…the conflict is far from over” and “the challenges of winning the peace are staggering in scale and complexity.”
A new Constitution ensuring a non-sectarian state with protections for Alawites, Druze and Christians is key.
The Norwegian diplomat conceded, “Syria remains volatile for those who remain inside and for those who wish to return.”
The UN’s humanitarian coordinator Tom Fletcher added somberly, “What has not changed is the scale of the humanitarian crisis. Syria was already one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world, with 17 million people, more than 70 percent of the population, in need of support.”
He added, “More than 7 million people were displaced across the country, and millions more Syrians were living as refugees.” Mr. Fletcher stressed the need for wider humanitarian funding to meet Winter needs; “Since 2016, more than $38 billion has gone to the UN-coordinated appeals for Syria and for the regional refugee response. But this year’s humanitarian appeal, the largest country appeal in the world, is also one of the most poorly supported.”
Rebuilding from the rubble remains daunting. Wealthy Arab states and Europe should focus on funding recovery and development support to rebuild Syria.
Many diplomats and humanitarian officials feel that existing tough economic sanctions on Syria should be loosened or lifted.
But what about political reconciliation? The UN had been endlessly working on this for years; Uniting the rebel and democratic factions opposed to Assad.
Now that the dictator has fallen, who will rule? Turkish-backed HTS Islamic fundamentalist forces remains the most powerful faction. Equally ISIL continues to be a major threat in parts of Syria.
The Security Council members issued a statement which “called for the implementation of an inclusive and Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process.” Significantly the Council “underscored the importance of combating terrorism in Syria.”
From the civil society side in Syria came a voice of an exiled filmmaker now living in London. Waad Al-Kateab stated, “For too long, Syria has been left to bleed while the world debated and hesitated. For too long, we have waited for action. The time for excuses is over. The time for action is now.”
Assad’s rule presided over a brutal and ghoulish police state which carried out mass killings, torture and human rights violations. Detailing the victims and the crimes and preserving evidence remains paramount to facilitating a healing process based on justice. Tracking the mass graves and the missing persons becomes urgent.
Despite the current public optimism for peace, diplomats remain privately nervous over what could quickly unravel. After all, given the armed factions and the political players such as the Islamic HTS militants, once aligned with Al Qaida, Syria remains awash with weapons and emotions.
Secretary General Antonio Guterres advised, “Today there is a flame of hope in Syria. That flame must not be extinguished.”
Syrians want to smile.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is the author of Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations: Germany, Korea, China (2014). [See pre-2011 Archives]
