Geostrategy-Direct
By Richard Fisher
At 12:01 on Jan. 20, Donald J. Trump completed the Oath of Office to become the 47th President of the United States of America, and then immediately declared in his inaugural address that, “The golden age of America begins right now.”
It is impossible to predict with precision how Trump will pursue and defend American interests in Asia, how he will work with American allies to advance security and economic interests, or how he will respond to the existential challenges posed by the deepening threat coalition of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), plus the militant dictatorships of Russia and North Korea.
But from his first day, Trump’s words and actions convey that his Administration will in character be vastly different from that of President Joe Biden, who’s mental decline led to a Democrat Party coup against him, propped up by an activist bureaucracy that sustained his Administration, but was in turn led poorly by Biden.
In stark contrast, Trump, a tireless multi-tasker, will be awake, engaged and in essential control; his hand-picked Cabinet and leading security sector officials understand they are not in charge, it is Trump who sets the strategic and often the tactical goals and is able to absorb vast amounts of information to make agile and practical decisions.
Trump’s first day portends much for Asia over the next four years of his second and final term.
1. In victory, Trump demonstrated great bravery and tenacity: He will not be intimidated.Trump and Americans understand that his victory amounts to a legal revolution that has overthrown a leftist oligarchy that used extensive lawfare, control of a hostile legal bureaucracy with allies in the intelligence community, in coordination with a compliant media, that along with his surviving two assassination attempts, have endowed Trump with unprecedented legitimacy and led to Republican control of the U.S. Congress.
In his inaugural address, Trump stated, “For many years, the radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens…Our recent election is a mandate to completely and totally reverse a horrible betrayal, and all of these many betrayals that have taken place, and to give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy and indeed their freedom. From this moment on, America’s decline is over.”
On his first day he signed an Executive Order suspending the security clearances of 51 U.S. intelligence community officials who suggested that the revelations of Biden family corruption with China on son Hunter Biden’s laptop were Russian disinformation.
While in his last hour as President Biden gave broad pardons to his family members most likely helping his son Hunter, it seems fairly clear that Trump will not tolerate such political corruption in the intelligence or other U.S. bureaucracies, with the implication that Trump will be not be intimidated by domestic or foreign opponents as he will demand far greater vigilance.
While Trump has no fear of engaging America’s enemies — talking to Vladimir Putin and suggesting an early trip to China to meet with Xi Jinping — their refusal to halt their threats to freedom could unleash a full force defensive campaign from Trump.
2. Trump’s mandate is to pursue an American revival, but this will rebound to the benefit of America’s allies.In his inaugural speech Trump said, “During every single day of the Trump administration, I will, very simply, put America first…America will soon be greater, stronger, and far more exceptional than ever before.”
To be sure, this mission was central to Trump’s first term, and it resulted in American economic growth that benefited American trading partners, resulted in leadership that focused European and Asian allies on increasing their own defense capacities as Trump discarded obsolete strategic limitations like the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia, to revive U.S. nuclear power.
A new focus on America’s economic and military security will result in an America that is again building strength, that again will better enable Trump to exercise the leadership necessary to bargain with, and to contain the CCP-led dictatorship coalition.
On Jan. 7, Trump called on North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies to increase their defense budgets to five percent of their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs).
If Trump pursues the same for the U.S. defense budget, as called for in May 2024 by Senate Armed Services Committee ranking Republican Senator Roger Wicker, that could amount to a $1.3 trillion U.S. defense budget based on a 2023 GDP.
Such spending over his four-year term would go far to funding his ambitious “Iron Dome” national missile defense for Americans, that could blunt China’s and Russia growing nuclear threat and offer great opportunities to making U.S. allies also more defended from their nuclear missiles.
So as Trump likely will urge far greater defense spending by U.S. allies, his pursuit of far greater U.S. military spending will rebound to much needed attention to building up U.S. nuclear weapons, naval forces, air forces and ground forces, that will increase deterrence of the dictatorships and make Americans and their allies more secure.
3. Trump promises to expand America’s strategic reach, meaning that he likely will be loath to lose friends and allies.There has been much attention on Trumps determination to reassert American control over the territory of Greenland, which is controlled by Denmark, and to reassert American control over the Panama Canal, given to the Panamanian government by President Jimmy Carter’s 1977 treaty. ....
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