U.S. strategic control of the Central Pacific depends on Compacts of Free Association (COFA) treaties with Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of Marshall Islands.
"These nations and their huge maritime territory comprise most of an 'east-west corridor' from Hawaii to the western edge of the Pacific. That corridor is essential for American control and military operations in the region," Grant Newsham noted in a Feb. 12 analysis for Japan-Forward.
The COFA agreements are up for renewal. They have made it through several committees but have yet to be officially voted on and passed.
"Everyone is blaming everyone else," Newsham wrote. "Congress blames other parts of the Congress and the White House. The White House blames Congress."
The result of failing to pass the COFA agreements is that, in the Central Pacific, the U.S. would be "defending from Hawaii and Southern California. Meanwhile, every country that was counting on us, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Australia, and others, will start to hedge their bets," Newsham wrote. "China will love it. The PRC already has a strong commercial and political presence in the COFA states. (And just about every other Pacific island nation.) Plus, it's aiming to pry them away from the United States. And it's succeeding."
Newsham continued: "The president of each COFA nation is said to have a blank check from China on the desk. They haven't been cashed – such is their deep attachment to the United States. But their patience is not unlimited, and they notice when their erstwhile friend is giving them short shrift. Indeed, they are darn angry, though they won't show it."
The sticking point to passing the COFAs seems to be the $2.3 billion in offsets. To fund the COFAs, $2.3 billion has to come out of the federal budget from elsewhere.
The $2.3 billion is over 20 years. It averages out to about $40 million a year for each country.
"Yes, $40 million. That amounts to a half-hour of Medicaid fraud," Newsham noted. "We blew a trillion or two in Afghanistan. And we're complaining about $120 million a year?"
Both the White House and Congress could find the money if they wanted to.
The White House National Security Council's Kurt Campbell "should have made passage of the COFAs his mission. He was the 'Tsar' after all," Newsham wrote. "Instead, he bailed out and has failed upwards (just confirmed as Deputy Secretary of State). That's par for the course in Washington."
Congress, "is distracted by 'the border,' Ukraine, Gaza, and any number of things," Newsham added. "Maybe the Department of Defense (DOD) could show some initiative and imagination. After all, the COFAs have to do the hard work of defending the Asia-Pacific. Dod could offer to redirect the money from elsewhere in its large budget."
Would Japan perhaps step in and offer to pay?
"It wouldn't be the first time Japan Inc got out its checkbook when it saw its interests at risk," Newsham wrote. "It pays close to $2 billion a year to support the American military presence in Japan. The nation's security depends on that. ... $120 million a year for 20 years ($2.3 billion total) would be an even better deal for Japan. If the U.S. government can't get this done, maybe Tokyo will help. Otherwise, we deserve to lose."
Newsham wrote in a post to LinkedIn: "It's coming down to the wire to see if the United States is going to forfeit its position in the Central Pacific. The COFA agreements with Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, and Marshall Islands are on the legislative 'one foot line' (using a football analogy) but are threatened by politics and budget myopia. The only people who ought to be happy about this pig-headedness in Washington are in Beijing. It's not that hard to fix, and perhaps help can come from an unlikely source."
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