FPI / September 3, 2024
Geostrategy-Direct
By Richard Fisher
An article in the June 2024 issue of the Chinese journal Aerospace China offers a review of China’s growing commercial space sector focusing on space launcher and mega satellite constellation makers, but it offers fewer insights into potential commercial manned space efforts.
Ultimately, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) success in pursuing multi-planetary programs for exploration and exploitation, starting with the present solar system, will depend on its ability to encourage the creation of innovative and risk-taking commercial space enterprises.
The article is titled “Thoughts and suggestions on the development of my country’s commercial aerospace industry,“ by Zhang Ning, Kang Liyan and Wang Kun, all from the Aerospace Engineering Consulting Corporation based in Beijing.
The article begins by making clear that “commercial space” in China is still very much a creation of the Chinese Communist Party led government, starting in 2014 with initial State Council directives, to mention in the State Council’s 13th Five Year Plan in 2016, to include high-resolution surveillance satellites, and expended in the 14th Five Year Plan in 2021 to build a “global coverage…communication, navigation and remote sensing infrastructure…”
What the article does not explain is that in contrast with the West, where commercial space companies control their agenda, albeit within a legal and regulatory framework and with access to government business, in China, commercial space companies are beholden to the CCP and for now, exist to build up the space power of the CCP.
Since 2014, the article notes, commercial space companies have received 62.4 billion Chinese Yuan ($8.7 billion) in “social investments” for a number of commercial space investments has grown in scale from 15 in 2014 to 170 in 2023, and which continues to increase.
Based on filings for future satellite positions with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the article lists ten future large Chinese commercial satellite constellations, with five mega constellations of over 1,000 satellites, all that could serve business customers or the People’s Liberation Army due to China’s laws of civil-military integration.
Of some interest, Chinese commercial companies may plan to loft 35,280 broadband/internet related satellites, which compares to the U.S. SpaceX Corporation’s planned 42,000 Starlink mega constellation of broadband satellites.
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